world of tanks power leveling the agriculture BankEconomic research team - IIO

On Tuesday IMF unveiled the latest edition of the World Economic Outlook. In the report, updated every quarter, IMF will fall 2012 global growth forecast from 4% to 3.3%, believe eurozone to growing tensions and other fragile economies of the region will pose a threat to global recovery. In addition, for most of the world's economy growth forecastDown, and the United States predicted flat to the last, is 1.8%. 　　This means that United States 2012 grows at a faster than year (2011), will certainly become a mainstay of the global economic recovery. Is the source of the financial crisis caused by the real estate market, as well as United States economic recovery's main drag wot power leveling, but the recent developmentsView this short Board are gradually filled. 　　After a nearly three-year low after United States real estate market has been showing increasing signs of recovery, 2012 may be a surprising performance, for the United States economy and power. First, the United States housing supply situation eased. December United States home sales rose 5%, the third consecutiveMonths, existing home sales had fallen to 6.2 months, nearly 6 months of normal levels of destocking; December new-home sales fell 2.2%, increase fell back after three months in a row, but the number of new homes for sale has been as low as 6.1 months, also close to historically normal levels. Second, the foreclosure case already in March 2010 to 3Dropped from 67,000 units per cent in December 2011, is the lowest level in nearly a year. Once again, consumer confidence is coming back. Fannie Mae announced on January 9, consumer survey, December forecast last year rise since the first time since May last year more than forecast decline in the number of the number of overall predicted prices will rise in the next 12 months 0.8%, which is more than half a year to its highest level, think that they can sell to buy a house number is also increasing. Finally, mortgage applications began to increase. Due to the Federal Reserve will be maintained over a long period of near-zero interest rates, currently both long-term and short-term mortgage rates near historic lows, the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) market composite index has reachedHighest level since November 2010. 　　These factors will continue in 2012 supports real estate market recovery. Real estate industry, mainly through the following channels on United States economic impact: first of all, price volatility by household net wealth, ability to borrow and spend level movements affect the consumer. Secondly, by influencing the construction of housing construction, building materials and other relatedIndustry spending levels of investment and consumption through the employment market. 　　In addition, the real estate market volatility also affects the size of mortgage defaults and foreclosures, which in turn affect the willingness of bank credit expansion. Start by looking at consumption. Recent data is a notable United States houses of 3 quarters of last year's own rose from 2 quarter of 65.9% per cent, which isRose for the first time since the first quarter of 2009. Housing its own rates to pick up, coupled with the rise in house prices, will improve United States balance sheets of families, housing wealth effect is also would be able to play. In addition, in December last year United States real estate employment reached a high level since April 2010, the job market also continued to improve. Fannie Mae's surveyAlso shows, that improve the personal financial situation a significant increase in the number. Stock flow of wealth and income increases, will provide the basis for expanding consumption, which will lead to United States economic growth. 　　As evidence, and United States last November household savings rate has fallen to 3.5%, was the lowest value since the start of the financial crisis. Second investment. Last November, United States buildingPer cent higher than 1.2% world of tanks power leveling, reach their highest level since June 2010 December new housing starts fell 4.1%, but starts is still nearly 20-month high, housing investment has not been undermined. Building and House share GDP is about 4.9% last year, well below the average of close to 10 years before the crisis 9%,This means that if the real estate markets continue to recover, related investment will have a larger space. Last look at banking. The financial crisis from the beginning of real estate industry and eventually swept across financial markets, banks hit hard. Mortgage default and foreclosure rates rise had dragged down the countless small and medium-sized banks. Judging from the recent circumstances, foreclosure rates have begun to decline,A small number of bank failures also decreased significantly, but the Bank has not significantly increased the amount of real estate mortgage loans world of tanks power leveling, remains in a wait state. 　　As house prices continued to rebound is expected, will significantly improve on the balance sheet of the banking industry, lending capacity will be increased accordingly. In short, after a silence of more than three years, into the recovery channel real estate market will be in 2012. With 2010Relying on "home buyer tax credit" policy of different artificial resuscitation, this recovery will be more robust and durable. As a strong cyclical industries, real estate starts will be for the United States make greater contribution to economic growth. 　　2012 when the global economy continues to shadow hanging over European debt crisis when the United States could show people's eyes light up. Macro-strategic planning department, the agriculture BankEconomic research team: Hu Xinzhi fubingtao fanjunlinwangjingwen Li Xinzhen Lili Yuan Jiang Han, bei Yang Wei "author: ABC" (Editor: Chen Jun)